After examining 50 Illinois House races from the 2014 General Election, I noticed a new pattern.
My algorithm produces a High Turnout Projection (the Red dotted line) and a Low Turnout Projection (The Gray dotted line).
In my previous post, I contend that during primary cycles, the Low Turnout Projection closely emulates the actual voter turnout.
After adding an additional operator to my algorithm, I found something that looks pretty special.
An average between the High and Low projections produces a number that more closely represents the actual turnout.
In the Illinois 31st House, 26,394 voters cast a ballot. The algorithm predicts 26,848 ballots– a difference of 1.7 percent.
In the Illinois 45th House, 32,001 voters cast a ballot. The algorithm predicts 31,805 ballots. This is a difference of -0.6 percent.
In the Illinois 5th House, 27,155 voters cast a ballot. The algorithm predicts 27,093 ballots. That is a difference of -0.2 percent.
I’ll keep working. Let me know what you think!