This voter turnout algorithm just got more accurate.

After examining 50 Illinois House races from the 2014 General Election, I noticed a new pattern.

My algorithm produces a High Turnout Projection (the Red dotted line) and a Low Turnout Projection (The Gray dotted line).

In my previous post, I contend that during primary cycles, the Low Turnout Projection closely emulates the actual voter turnout.

After adding an additional operator to my algorithm, I found something that looks pretty special.

An average between the High and Low projections produces a number that more closely represents the actual turnout.

For example:

In the Illinois 31st House, 26,394 voters cast a ballot.  The algorithm predicts 26,848 ballots– a difference of 1.7 percent.

In the Illinois 45th House, 32,001 voters cast a ballot.  The algorithm predicts 31,805 ballots.  This is a difference of -0.6 percent.

In the Illinois 5th House, 27,155 voters cast a ballot.  The algorithm predicts 27,093 ballots.  That is a difference of -0.2 percent.

I’ll keep working.  Let me know what you think!

 

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